Amid widespread speculation that the US military is amassing military assets, including aircraft carrier strike groups, in the Middle East in preparation for an attack on Iran, tensions are rising in the region, the New York Times reported on the 26th.
Officials in the Middle East believe that if the US attacks Iran, Iran and pro-Iranian militias could retaliate by attacking US military bases throughout the region, setting off a cycle of retaliation and counterretaliation. The US military is expected to finalize preparations for an attack on Iran soon, should it so choose.
The US Central Command announced today that an aircraft carrier strike group, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and three warships armed with Tomahawk missiles, has been deployed to the Middle East, within the command’s area of responsibility, to promote security and stability in the region. According to the New York Times, if the White House orders an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could theoretically take military action within a day or two. The US has already deployed 12 additional F-15E attack fighters to the Middle East to bolster its airstrike capabilities.
Iran and pro-Iranian militias have issued harsh warnings, threatening a vigorous response if Iran is attacked. However, when Iran’s nuclear facilities and other targets were attacked in June of last year, Iran’s actual response was minimal. Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman Reza Talaynik, referring to the June war, said, “If we are targeted by US-Zionist forces, our response will be more decisive and more painful than before.” Hours later, Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency reported that the Iranian navy commander said the military was “fully prepared to defend the country’s sovereignty.”
A large billboard in central Tehran square took 25 days to paint, depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier. The image, with blood flowing in ribbons from the blue deck of the aircraft carrier into the sea, resembles a “blood-soaked American flag.”
On one side of the painting is a warning: “Sow the wind and you will reap the whirlwind.” Since the deployment of US military assets to the Middle East, pro-Iran forces have also declared that they will retaliate if Iran is attacked.
At an event held south of Beirut, Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassim said, “When Trump threatens Imam Khamenei, he is threatening tens of millions of his followers. It is our duty to confront this threat with all necessary measures and preparedness.” Many of the participants waved Iranian flags or posters with images of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, issued a statement on the 25th, urging its fighters to prepare for war, saying it may decide to declare “Operation Martyrdom” if the conflict escalates. The Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah warned that a war against Iran would not be easy, saying, “You will experience all the pain of death, nothing of yours will remain in our region, and we will strike fear into your hearts.”
Recently, Joe Kent, director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, warned Iraqi officials at a conference in Baghdad that if Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq attack U.S. forces, the United States will retaliate against these militias. The U.S. military is based in Erbil, in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Neighboring countries are taking a cautious approach to avoid being drawn into the conflict. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 25th, reaffirming its commitment to “not allowing Iran to use its airspace, territory, or waters for any hostile military action against Iran, nor to provide any material support in this regard.”
Retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, former commander of the US Naval Forces in the Middle East, told the New York Times that an attack on the Iranian government would have an unpredictable outcome, and that President Trump’s purpose in amassing military assets was likely not to secure a direct military victory, but to strengthen his position in future negotiations. He said, “While attacks on Iran’s missile systems and command-and-control systems have occurred in the past, they still possess a large number of missiles and drones capable of striking US military bases in the region.
The current US military posture appears to be a maximum pressure strategy with the goal of ‘negotiations.'”