Simulation results show that if China invades Taiwan and US forces intervene, the US and Taiwan will win the war but suffer a huge blow.
According to Bloomberg News on the 9th, the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is currently conducting a simulation to predict the outcome of a situation in which China will invade Taiwan in 2026 for armed unification and the United States will respond militarily.
It was assumed that Japan would make more active use of US bases in its own country but would not directly intervene unless the mainland was attacked. The use of nuclear weapons was not considered.
18 simulations out of a total of 22 have been conducted so far. As a result, in most simulations, the US and Taiwan were shown to defeat China, but it was analyzed that they would inflict huge damage.
“In most, if not all, scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancium said.
The results showed that Chinese missiles sank many U.S. and Japanese surface fleets and destroyed hundreds of moored aircraft on the ground. The most recent result is that the United States lost more than 900 fighters and attack aircraft in four weeks.
In response, Canciam said, “The reason the US military is losing a lot of money is because it cannot conduct a systematic operation to break the Chinese defense until it gets close.” “We have to use military force to respond,” he said.
The success or failure of the land battle depends entirely on the Taiwanese army, but it was observed that it would not be easy for the Chinese army to conduct an amphibious operation because the amphibious operation was not easy.
“All simulations so far have shown that China can establish a bridgehead, but in most situations, it cannot be expanded,” said Cancium. power is limited.”
In the remaining four simulations, a ‘pessimistic’ scenario in which China is in an advantageous position, such as the US delaying military aid to Taiwan or Japan adopting strict neutrality, will be mainly considered. The result will be revealed in December.