With the presidential election just 9 days away on the 27th, nationwide opinion polls continue to show that Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump are locked in a close race within the margin of error. However, while an ABC poll showed Vice President Harris widening the gap with former President Trump somewhat, a CBS poll showed the gap narrowing, indicating that the race is continuing to be unpredictable.
According to an ABC poll conducted with Ipsos from the 18th to the 22nd of 2,808 adults nationwide and released today, Vice President Harris received 49% support among registered voters, while former President Trump received 47% support. Among likely voters (with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points), Harris had a slight lead over Trump, with 51%, compared to 47% for Trump.
This figure is an increase from the 2-percentage point gap in the previous survey earlier this month (Harris 50%, Trump 48%). Harris had an edge among women (+14 percentage points), blacks (+83 percentage points), Hispanics (+30 percentage points), and college graduates (+22 percentage points), while Trump had an edge among men (+6 percentage points), whites (+11 percentage points), and those with a high school diploma or less (+11 percentage points).
In this survey, Harris showed a significant lead among black voters, a group that had been considered weaker than other Democratic candidates, such as President Joe Biden. For example, Vice President Harris surpassed former President Trump not only among black women (+88 percentage points) but also men (+74 percentage points), which is a higher margin than President Biden’s margin in the 2020 exit polls (black men +60 percentage points, women +81 percentage points). However, among Hispanics, Vice President Harris secured a similar gap in support over former President Trump in the 2020 exit polls among male voters, but the gap narrowed among female voters (+39 percentage points → +32 percentage points).
In a poll conducted by CBS and YouGov from the 23rd to the 25th of 2,161 registered voters nationwide and released today, 50% of respondents (margin of error ±2.6 percentage points) who intended to vote said they would choose Vice President Harris, while 49% said they would choose former President Trump. Vice President Harris had a 4-point lead over former President Trump nationally after the September debate, but that has now narrowed to 1 point, CBS reported. In a poll targeting voters living in swing states, Vice President Harris and former President Trump were tied at 50%.
The outlet reported that Vice President Harris had a 3%-point lead in swing states in September, but two weeks ago, it had dropped to 1% and the same number this time. The CBS poll also confirmed that economic issues significantly supported former President Trump.
When asked which candidate’s economic policies would be more financially helpful, 30% chose Vice President Harris and 44% chose former President Trump.