As President Donald Trump pressures Iran for an agreement, he has made it clear that he will no longer delay the deadline set for 8 p.m. on the 7th).
In about a full day, it will be determined whether both sides will find a sudden breakthrough based on the newly emerged “45-day ceasefire plan” to halt a massive escalation, or whether concentrated strikes on Iran’s key infrastructure will begin as President Trump has warned, plunging the entire world into another level of uncertainty. While the possibility that President Trump, who has changed his stance multiple times, might reverse the deadline cannot be ruled out, the assessment is that the war with Iran is reaching a decisive phase in its sixth week.
The deadline for negotiations, which President Trump repeatedly affirmed on the 6th, is “8 p.m. on the 7th.” That morning, during a White House Easter event, when reporters asked if this was the “final deadline,” President Trump replied, “Yes.”
At a White House press conference, he stated, “We have a plan. All of Iran’s bridges will be destroyed by midnight tomorrow, and all of Iran’s power plants will be blown up and rendered unusable again,” adding, “If we want, they will be completely destroyed by midnight.”
This was a message that if an agreement is not reached by the proposed deadline, he would immediately launch strikes on Iran’s core infrastructure, inflicting catastrophic damage on Iran within four hours of the attack beginning. This significantly heightened the pressure.
Claiming that he could wipe out Iran overnight, he did not forget to warn that the strikes would be on a scale capable of completely paralyzing national functions by mentioning “all power plants” and “all bridges.” When asked if he was concerned about potential controversy regarding war crimes if civilian-use power plants and bridges were attacked, he replied, “Not at all.”
He highlighted his determination to break through, stating that he would not be deterred by the inevitable controversy over violating international law if he carried out strikes on civilian facilities. Although the deadline of 8 p.m. on the 7th was suddenly pushed back by one day—and there had been previous extensions—so the possibility of President Trump changing his mind at the last minute cannot be ruled out, he has outwardly signaled his resolve to pressure Iran without leaving any room for retreat.
The primary focus is whether a breakthrough can be achieved to alleviate the peaked tensions, even to some extent, based on the “45-day ceasefire plan” prepared by the mediators. President Trump described the 45-day ceasefire proposal as “insufficient, but significant progress.” It is known that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is attached as a condition to the ceasefire, and the prevailing view is that an agreement to ease the blockade in some way is necessary for President Trump to back down from striking critical infrastructure.
President Trump also stated in a press conference that opening the Strait of Hormuz is a “very critical priority,” adding, “There must be an agreement I can accept, and part of that agreement is the free movement of oil.” Therefore, the biggest point of interest is whether a partial agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be reached between the United States and Iran. Even if Iran, having realized the leverage effect of the Strait of Hormuz more clearly than ever before, does not immediately agree to demands for a “full opening,” a path toward de-escalation could open if it agrees to a partial and phased solution that saves President Trump some face. However, the gap between the demands of both sides is enormous.
Above all, it remains uncertain whether Iran, which harbors deep distrust of the U.S. and feels betrayed by the fact that the U.S. attack began on February 28 before negotiations between the two countries had concluded, will cooperate with President Trump in seeking a way out. On that day, Iran officially rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal while stating its position that it desires a permanent end to the war. If an agreement is not reached within the set deadline and President Trump ultimately proceeds with a series of strikes on Iran’s critical infrastructure, the subsequent developments could become a “zero-visibility” situation. Even if he declares victory after inflicting devastating damage, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could remain in place.
On the contrary, it is highly likely that the Iranian leadership will utilize the “Hormuz leverage” even more intensely to further pressure President Trump. For President Trump, who needs oil price stability, this could inadvertently cause him to walk deeper into a quagmire resulting from an escalating global energy crisis.
President Trump’s dilemma can be seen in his stance of prioritizing the opening of Hormuz almost as his top priority, while simultaneously stating that “the energy-independent United States will provide second-line support, so countries highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz must take charge of the strait themselves. ”
The fact that the United States, despite having minimal dependence on Hormuz, is witnessing rising domestic gasoline prices amidst soaring international oil prices is becoming a headache for President Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. An Iranian counterattack is also a variable. Although the Trump administration claims to have neutralized Iran to the extent that it can be considered a de facto victory, observers believe there is still considerable room for Iran to inflict military damage on the U.S., as evidenced by the incident in which a U.S. F-15E fighter jet was shot down in Iran.
Ultimately, a situation could arise where a prolonged war—which President Trump most wishes to avoid—becomes inevitable. The possibility of deploying U.S. ground troops also remains. President Trump stated the previous day that he would not rule out deploying ground troops; while this could be intended to heighten pressure on Iran, it appears that the possibility cannot be ruled out that he may seek military achievements, such as securing Iran’s enriched uranium reserves, to justify the outbreak of war by using the failure to reach an agreement on the deadline extension as a pretext.
